The trade war talk has produced tremendous anxiety in the stock market. The major money are on the sideline. There are a lot to contemplate with besides the trade war. The rising interest rates and strong Dollar are the other two important factors that are on investors’ mind.
We at PricenTime.com listen to the market info instead of the noises. We are focused on the price and time, nothing more and nothing less. Currently the weekly cycle that started on 04/06/2018 has finished 11 weeks. It is entering the 12th weekly bar on Monday 06/25/2018. It is in the process of finishing the weekly alpha cycle bottom next week. After the alpha cycle bottom, it will make a higher high (beta high) to take out 2800 resistance. When it looks like a breakout from the 2800 level, it will retreat back down again. The bulls thinking they caught a breakout at 2800 level will be disappointed. Based on the seasonal pattern, it will probably make the beta high in July/August time frame, then it will produced a weekly cycle low around September.
The September low is a major opportunity for the upcoming bull market. Keep your powder dry when the market is in the sideways motion.
One of the reasons for the trade war talk is the presidential cycle. Trump is not afraid of hurting the market right now because he wants the stock market be kept in pain. So when he finally stops bad mouthing about the trade war, the market will be relieved and the money will pour in. Investors have a very short memory. Rightfully Trump will be able to claim credits for the roaring stock market during the mid term election. Historically, the 3rd year of the first presidential term is the best year for the stock market because of the re-election concern. The Trump administration will do all it can to juice up the stock market for the sole purpose of re-election. So stay tuned.