Monthly Archives: November 2019

Risk On!

Last Thursday the 10-year treasury yield took out the September swing high of 1.903% and closed above it on a weekly basis.  So from the yield perspective, this is a risk on environment, money will be forced to flow out of the safe haven into equities.  The defensive sectors (XLU, XLP and XLRE) were promptly sold off to form a weekly cycle high.

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 11/01/2019

The S&P 500 cash index closed at 3066.91 at a record high last Friday.  Even though it is a hair below the breakout target at 3076.67, it could easily take down the target next week if the trade war news continues to be positive.  The Q3 earnings prove to be better or not as bad as feared.  It seems that all the stars are lined up to have a year-end rally. 

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