Last week we sent out a member private message about taking profits now. We have been bullish since the early October low and were expecting the rally to last until the end of year or mid January 2020. What changed? On November 19th, all three indices gaped to a new all time high then they produced an intraday sell signal within the first trading hour.
All three indices closed at a fresh all time high on the same day last Friday! A vague promise from the White House about the pending signage of the phase one trade agreement pumped the market to make a blue sky breakout! We have been here before in the last 20 months during the trade war
Last Thursday the 10-year treasury yield took out the September swing high of 1.903% and closed above it on a weekly basis. So from the yield perspective, this is a risk on environment, money will be forced to flow out of the safe haven into equities. The defensive sectors (XLU, XLP and XLRE) were promptly sold off to form a weekly cycle high.
The S&P 500 cash index closed at 3066.91 at a record high last Friday. Even though it is a hair below the breakout target at 3076.67, it could easily take down the target next week if the trade war news continues to be positive. The Q3 earnings prove to be better or not as bad as feared. It seems that all the stars are lined up to have a year-end rally.
