Monthly Archives: May 2020

Decision Time

On June 1st, the weekly cycle count will start the 10th weekly bar, meaning the weekly cycle started from the March 23 low has survived nine weeks.  Statistically a bear market rally can’t last more than nine weeks. So if the stock market can continue to press higher in the month of June, then it will change the nature of the bounce from the March 23 low. 

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 05/22/2020

It has been eight weeks since the March 23 low.  The Dow and S&P 500 both are under its 200-day moving average.  Nasdaq has been above the 200-day moving average since April 22nd.  This divergence is reflecting the difference between the digital and real economy.  The digital economy stocks continue to perform because

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The Sell Signal Is Busted

Last week we have been emailing to our member subscribers that a sell signal has been confirmed in all three indices.  However, after a 6% selloff, the market staged an impressive comeback on Thursday and Friday.  The strength of the comeback disarmed the sell signal, even though it didn’t reach the stoploss point yet.  A valid sell signal doesn’t behave this way.

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It Is Still A Bear Market Rally


Last week Nasdaq had an outside reversal weekly bar, meaning it traded lower than the previous week’s low and then closed higher than the previous week’s high.  When this happens, it is indicative of further momentum on the upside.  The Dow and S&P 500 also closed on the strong side on the weekly bar.  The short term momentum

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More Volatility Ahead

The five mega cap tech companies reported earnings last week and that finally finished the Fed induced rally.  The market mood has switched to paying attention to the economic realities.  The epic battle between the Fed supporting the equities and the market driven price exploration will cause volatility to rise.

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Cycle Forecast

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