Rising oil prices have contributed to every U.S. recession in the last 50 years. Rising oil prices have also contributed to stock market peaks and resulting bear markets. That was certainly the case during the mid-1970s when a tripling in the price of crude during 1973 (during the Arab Oil Embargo) led to a 50 percent stock market loss in the following year (1974).
As we anticipated, the NASDAQ made the correction low on March 14th. The subsequent rally after the March 14th low was more than impressive to confirm that the 4-year mid-cycle correction is finally over. Now with the market has to contend with the war in Ukraine, high inflation and tighter monetary policy.
Crude oil prices have been rallying non-stop in anticipation of the US ban of Russian energy imports since the war in Ukraine broke out on February 24th. The high oil and gas prices have put the stock market under pressure. More importantly, the high oil price is a political nightmare for the administration.
Before we start our weekly blog, we would like to send our thoughts and prayers to the Ukrainian people who are fighting a brutal invasion from Russia. It’s hard to believe that we are watching the slaughtering of innocent civilians in real time on screen. May the peace come soon to the brave Ukrainians and the world.
