Monthly Archives: July 2022

Look for Sideways to Down Trading Next Week

The market survived a few major challenges to its upward momentum last week.  The market reacted positively to the Fed July meeting rate hike decision and all the mega tech earnings reports!  This market reaction didn’t sit well with the Fed.  On Sunday, Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that inflation poses a larger threat

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The 10-year Treasury Yield Has Topped Since Mid June

The 10-year treasury yield topped on June 14, 2022 at 3.483% and the commodities topped a week before that.  This is not a random event that the 10-year treasury yield tops after the commodities for no reasons.  It is precisely how the intermarket works.  Commodities represent the cost of goods for society in general.  Interest rates represent the cost of money in general. 

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Inflation May Have Peaked

The U.S. inflation reached 9.1% in June, its highest rate in nearly 41 years, but the market didn’t react negatively.  The Q2 bank earnings was bad, the market as a whole didn’t react negatively either.  When two consecutive negative news releases failed to move the market down,  we call this divergence as one of the signs of a bottom.

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location Analysis

In the beginning of last week, the talk of the town was recession.  Oil tumbled 10% as the fear of recession was played out on media.  But last Friday’s jobs data was stronger than expected growth.  The strong jobs data dispelled the fear of recession a little bit, then the worrying of a 75-basis point rate hike immediately came to forefront.  It’s a highly

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The May 20 Low Was Tested Last Week

Following the post June Fed meeting tantrum, the market rallied to jump over the May 20 low in the week after.  But last week the market encountered a selloff that tried to reverse the post June Fed meeting relief rally.  The bears almost won the battle to cause another leg down, but it failed due to the bulls emerging in the late Friday afternoon trading.  The

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Cycle Forecast

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