Monthly Archives: December 2022

The Bear Market is Still Alive and Well

Since the exceedingly hawkish December Fed meeting, the market is still in sour mood even though the DOW remained above its 200-day moving average during the last week’s selloff.  The NASDAQ is under attack by trading very close to its mid October low.  The S&P 500 has retraced 50% of the mid October low to December 1 high.  It is only 10

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The Fed’s Bulls Eye on Wage Inflation

The November CPI release and December Fed meeting occurred last week.  The inflation data was better than expected, but the Fed was as hawkish as it could be.  So the market sold off.  During the post-meeting conference, the Fed Chair specifically mentioned the sticky wage inflation due to shortage of hourly wage workers.  The Fed admitted that they are not able to create new workers, the unusual

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Late Stage Market Sector Analysis

The market has been in a consistent sour mood since the beginning of December.  On the last day of November, the Fed chair spoke about slower pace rate hike in December Fed meeting.  The market rallied for one day and then changed mood to be decisively bearish.  The hope for a year-end rally has been drowned with recession talks.  At this point, it is pointless to debate

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Why is the Mid October Bottom More Durable?

On Wednesday November 30, 2022 the Fed chair positively confirmed that a smaller rate hike is coming as soon as in the December Fed meeting.  The market welcomed the positive confirmation and promptly rallied to close above its 200-day moving average.  This literally changed the S&P 500 from a bear market to a bull market if it can stay above the 200-day moving average

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Cycle Forecast

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