Among the rampant bearish talks about banking crisis and recession, the NASDAQ led the market again last week.  It definitely confirmed the March low as the seasonal low and a new weekly cycle has formed.  This is extremely frustrating for the bears as there are so many reasons to be bearish.  We don’t dispute the facts of the fundamentals, but we do see that the market perhaps has discounted the known fundamentals already.  Therefore the market rises against the bearish fundamental backdrop.

Below is the NASDAQ daily chart.  You can see that:

  1.  It closed above the old trend line b with heavy volume last Friday.  Now the old trend line b is the support in the next down move.
  2. 03/13/23 low is a daily and weekly cycle low.  Most importantly, it is a seasonal low that will support the market to move higher into the next seasonal high location.
  3. It is 14 days into the new daily cycle, which is in the beta high location for the new daily cycle.  It would not surprise us to see the market trading sideways a little bit since it is a little overbought in the short term.
  4. It is presently only a hair below the old weekly cycle high that occurred on 02/02/23 when the market cheered Facebook’s cost saving strategy.  It is expected that the early February high will be taken out soon.
  5. The bears will continue to use the banking crisis as reasons to be bearish.  But the NASDAQ shook it off already.  The NASDAQ is looking forward to an AI-powered future.  Nvidia is the clear leader in the AI space.

Below is the NASDAQ weekly chart.  You can see that:

  1. The three-point down trend line provided support during the banking crisis selloff.
  2. The March seasonal low was made right on the down trend line.
  3. The triple bottom powered rally in the beginning of 2023 survived the banking crisis induced selloff by not falling back below the three-point down trend line.
  4. It is two weeks into the new weekly cycle.  It should run additional five weeks before encountering any meaningful selloff.
  5. Additional five weeks will lead us to early May.  The Fed meeting will be held on May 2-3.  So the market shall continue to move higher until the next Fed meeting.
  6. Earnings report will start soon in mid April.  We don’t anticipate major earnings problems.
  7. Any selloff in the next 1-2 weeks should be a buying opportunity.
  8. SMH ETF or QQQ should be bought.  Tech will continue to be the winner in the next 4-year cycle.
  9. Banking will continue to be a loser.  At the final end of the banking crisis, all the banks in the United States could be nationalized as utility companies.  There is nothing exciting about banking, yet the risk is very high.