Monthly Archives: June 2023

Second Half of the Current 4-year Cycle

The bulls have been in control in 2023 against the backdrop of an inverted yield curve and the regional banking crisis.  The market has all the bearish reasons to go down in 2023, but it didn’t.  It is perplexing for the diehard bears, but at the end of the day, one has to respect the price momentum and trend.  The rally from the mid October 2022 low has

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The Fed was Irrelevant Until It is Relevant

The much anticipated Fed June meeting came and the market brushed off the Fed’s hawkish stands of two more potential rate hikes down the road.  The bullish momentum just kept going as if the Fed was irrelevant.  The Fed spoke clearly that there is no rate cut in 2023 and quantitative tightening is ongoing.  Despite the market momentum, we still

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It is Not a New Bull Cycle Yet

The relentless rally in 2023 made bulls and bears equally confused.  A Bank of America strategist who has been quite bearish all along was forced to declare that the bear market is over and a new bull market starts now because the S&P 500 rallied more than 20% from the October 2022 low.  Is it a good idea to enter the market now because the market has rallied more than

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Summer Rally is in Motion

The Nvidia led AI market rally just wouldn’t die!  The old economy DOW index finally joined the game after the good employment data was released last Friday.  Now the DOW and small cap Russell 2000 are waking up to the AI rally.  The synchronized rally has more gas left in the tank!  From seasonal cycle perspective, the current rally should last until late August

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Cycle Forecast

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