Monthly Archives: August 2023

Is the Market Bottomed Already?

Originally we expected the market to correct all the way into October, where it is a typical place for a seasonal low.  We had two major events last week.  First, the Nvidia Q2 earnings report was a blowout quarter, but the market didn’t jump as it was under the Fed’s shadow.  Secondly, the Fed Jackson Hole speech was the usual data dependent muddy rambling,

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Continued Distribution in Progress

In our last blog, we concluded that a stock market seasonal high was put in place on July 27, a day after the July Fed rate hike decision.  Last week all three indices continued the selloff even though it was oversold in short term measures.  Last Friday all three major indices produced an intraday buy signal, but the volume was very weak.  There is no way that

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The 2023 Seasonal Top is Likely in Place

The AI infused 2023 first half rally seemed impossible to stop.  As the price momentum kept pumping stock market valuation to new heights, the fundamental bears were forced to concede bearish calls.  The most adamant bear Morgan Stanley Michael Wilson apologized for his wrong-way bet in a note to Morgan Stanley clients on July 24.  Wilson underestimated the price momentum

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Cycle Forecast

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