Monthly Archives: October 2023

A Make-or-Break Week in the Bond Market

The mega tech earnings report with the exception of Tesla has been so far so good.  The growth engine in Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon are intact despite the tight monetary conditions.  But the stock market reaction to the good earnings report has been muted.  The mood is sour.  Any minor earnings miss has been severely punished.  The entire stock

Read more ...

The Moment of Truth is Here

The inflation data have not been cooler than expected and the employment data have not been weaker than expected either.  The Fed’s “higher for longer” mantra has been the consistent message lately.  The 10-year treasury yield has gone mad and briefly touched 5% last week.  All the above mentioned fundamental developments pressured the stock market.  The S&P 500 index

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Read more ...

The SP&500 Cash Index Cycle Location

Despite a war was declared in Israel last weekend, the stock market rallied while the U.S. treasury yields fell down due to safe haven seeking behavior.  This means that the stock market believed the war would be contained in the region and the risk of a wild spread war is small at the moment.  The 10/3/23 low continues to be the low of the daily and

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Read more ...

Uncertain Time

In our last Blog we talked about the stock market A-B-C correction pattern.  The S&P 500 made a new low on 10/3/2023 to invalidate the A-B-C pattern, but the subsequent rally last Friday confirmed the completion of the A-B-C correction pattern.  The stock and bond markets whipsawed last Friday after the release of  the blowout employment numbers.  Technically, the stock market is set for a Q4

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Read more ...

A-B-C Correction Pattern

The summer correction has finished an A-B-C correction pattern if the 09/27/23 low holds from this point on.  The 10-year treasury yield has made a new high at 4.688% last Thursday 09/28/23.  The not so bad inflation data released last Friday caused the 10-year treasury yield to gap down on Friday morning.  The tug of war between the inflation and treasury yield has caused extreme

Read more ...

Cycle Forecast

New Post Alerts


FREE! Subscribe today! Enter your email above to join our New Post Alerts.

Blog Categories

Price and Time Logo