Monthly Archives: February 2024

What Can Go Wrong?

Nvidia had a blowout earnings report last Wednesday and the market went crazy with Nvidia’s bright future.  At this point, the market uniformly agrees that Nvidia is not expensive and its number one leadership in AI is secure for the next few years as a minimum.  Nvidia is a semiconductor hardware company, but the market is already envisioning Nvidia pivoting

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Meme Stocks and Market Top


The Fed surprised everyone with 2024 rate cuts projection during the December 12-13 2023 meeting.  The market immediately thought of the first rate cut coming in March 2024 therefore the rally continued into February.  The Fed realized the market’s unrealistic expectations about rate cuts, and has come out several times to talk down

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Don’t Fight the Fed

In December 17-18 2023 Fed meeting, Fed Chair Powell talked about rate cuts in 2024 that added fuel to the fire for the Christmas rally in bonds and stocks.  Both bond traders and equity traders immediately priced in aggressive rate cuts starting as early as in March 2024.  In January 30-31 Fed meeting, Fed Chair Powell emphasized no

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Just Have to Wait a Bit More

We had Microsoft, AMD and Google report earnings last Tuesday.  They were underwhelming, not good enough to justify the high stock valuation.  Then the Fed put cold water on March rate cut dream and the market responded negatively on Wednesday trading.  Somehow the market knew that Meta and Amazon were going to have a great

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Cycle Forecast

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