Category Archives: Dollar

Continued Distribution in Progress

In our last blog, we concluded that a stock market seasonal high was put in place on July 27, a day after the July Fed rate hike decision.  Last week all three indices continued the selloff even though it was oversold in short term measures.  Last Friday all three major indices produced an intraday buy signal, but the volume was very weak.  There is no way that

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The Fed was Irrelevant Until It is Relevant

The much anticipated Fed June meeting came and the market brushed off the Fed’s hawkish stands of two more potential rate hikes down the road.  The bullish momentum just kept going as if the Fed was irrelevant.  The Fed spoke clearly that there is no rate cut in 2023 and quantitative tightening is ongoing.  Despite the market momentum, we still

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It is Not a New Bull Cycle Yet

The relentless rally in 2023 made bulls and bears equally confused.  A Bank of America strategist who has been quite bearish all along was forced to declare that the bear market is over and a new bull market starts now because the S&P 500 rallied more than 20% from the October 2022 low.  Is it a good idea to enter the market now because the market has rallied more than

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The Effects of the Rising Dollar

Finally the Dollar has reversed its down slide!  Since the Dollar broke out the 6-year down trend line in September 2014, it topped in March 2015.  From March 2015 to September 2017, the Dollar has gone thru a very complex ABC flat correction pattern.

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Is Rising Dollar Good or Bad?

The relationship between the U.S. dollar and the stock market is one of the most complicated and confusing subjects.   Historically, stocks have done well during periods of dollar weakness and dollar strength.  The dollar’s impact on stocks needed to be filtered through the lens of the commodity markets.  A falling dollar, for example, can be bearish

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