Category Archives: Forecasts

The NASDAQ Cycle Location As Of 01/07/2022

The first week trading of 2022 has been full of sparks!  The energy sector ETF XLE rallied 10.52% last week as the markets looked past Omicron induced travel headaches.  The financials XLF ETF rallied 5.43% last week as the markets looked for higher yields to help banks making more profits.  At the same time, the NASDAQ lost 4.53% last week as money is finally rotating out of the mega tech stocks.  The best performing chip stock NVDA lost 7.36% last week.

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There Is Only 10% Chance The NASDAQ Has Finished Going Down

There are only four triple witching Fridays in a year.  Last Friday was one of the them and the market didn’t fail to prove triple witching Friday’s abnormal trading reputation.  On a triple witching Friday, there is the simultaneous expiration (or rollover) of various futures and options contracts. Many U.S. stock index futures, stock index options, and stock options expire on these days.

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The Fed Cemented The 4-Year 1st Half Cycle Top

The market tanked on black Friday due to the emergence of Omicron variant out of South Africa.  The market did a very anemic technical bounce on Monday 11/29/2021.  Then out of left field, the Fed Chair Powell spoke about accelerated tapering pace due to the higher than expected inflation.

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Warning Signs Are Everywhere

The recent rally in electric vehicle stocks such as Tesla, Lucid and the new IPO Rivian got people talking about Apple’s potential entrance to the electric and autonomous vehicle market in 2025.  Bloomberg released a report to confirm the rumor, which caused Apple stock to rally to a new high. 

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Still Bullish After a 3% Quick Dip

The indices had a quick 3% dip due to inflation scares, but the dip-buying army jumped in with both feet after 3 days of mild selling.  The indices closed in a very positive posture last Friday.  Overall the market is very bullish and the year end rally is still in progress.

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