Category Archives: Forecasts

What Can Go Wrong?

Nvidia had a blowout earnings report last Wednesday and the market went crazy with Nvidia’s bright future.  At this point, the market uniformly agrees that Nvidia is not expensive and its number one leadership in AI is secure for the next few years as a minimum.  Nvidia is a semiconductor hardware company, but the market is already envisioning Nvidia pivoting

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Don’t Fight the Fed

In December 17-18 2023 Fed meeting, Fed Chair Powell talked about rate cuts in 2024 that added fuel to the fire for the Christmas rally in bonds and stocks.  Both bond traders and equity traders immediately priced in aggressive rate cuts starting as early as in March 2024.  In January 30-31 Fed meeting, Fed Chair Powell emphasized no

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Just Have to Wait a Bit More

We had Microsoft, AMD and Google report earnings last Tuesday.  They were underwhelming, not good enough to justify the high stock valuation.  Then the Fed put cold water on March rate cut dream and the market responded negatively on Wednesday trading.  Somehow the market knew that Meta and Amazon were going to have a great

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Critical Week Ahead

Quite a few pending catalysts will test the durability of this unrelenting mega tech led rally this coming week.  First is the Fed meeting decision on Wednesday, then we will have AMD, Google and Microsoft report earnings on Tuesday, 1/30/24.  Finally Apple, Amazon and Meta will report earnings on Thursday 2/1/24.  Lastly, three US service members were

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Double Top Formation Voided Last Week

Whatever the Fed officials said about the timing of the anticipated rate cuts didn’t do a thing to scare the market.  Instead, the market grabbed on everything TSMC said about AI chips.  The S&P 500 powered through the potential double top formation we talked about in our last blog to make a new high last Friday.  Essentially, the rally started from

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Cycle Forecast

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