Category Archives: Forecasts

New Investing Theme

Rising interest rates, strong dollar and trade war concerns are the fundamental reasons that made investors very hesitant to put money back into the market.  The hesitation showed up in the price action as sideways consolidation for the last four months.  

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 05112018

Last week the S&P 500 cash index marched to pass 2717, which is a prior swing high.  It closed firmly above 2717 as well.  This action took place on the 5th weekly bar of the weekly cycle which was started on 04/06/2018.  So the cycle location is much clearer now.  

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The Low is In with a New Daily Cycle

pricentime

Today the S&P 500 cash index took out the previous day’s high and closed above it.  Not only it closed above the previous day high, it also closed above the weekly and monthly pivot range.  The strong close implies that the daily cycle low is in place.  This daily cycle finished in 14 days, which is relatively short in cycle length. 

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S&P 500 Cash Index Location 02162018

The S&P 500 cash index closed on Friday right inside the resistance zone of 2700-2750 as we previously blogged.  It closed below the daily pivot zone, but above the 3-day pivot zone and weekly pivot zone.  The close on Friday 2/26/2018 indicates it is meeting temporary resistance as we expected. 

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It’s Not Over

The furious more than 10% correction happened in the last two weeks is not over.  It is not time to get in to buy bargains yet.  This correction is much needed to clear the excess and re-discover the relationship between the equities market and interest rates. 

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