Category Archives: Forecasts

A Rare Regime-Change Economic Policy Is Under Way

On last Thursday (10/08/20200) we sent out a private note stating that the small cap Russell 2000 index is breaking out in the midst of fiscal stimulus package negotiation.  This is the first time ever that the Russell 2000 index is outperforming the Dow and S&P 500 since the Russell 2000 index topped in August 2018.

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In Wait and See Mode

Since the NASDAQ found the bottom around 10500 level, it bounced anemically last week.  All three indices managed to produce a weekly gain last week.  But the cycle indicators are not presenting a picture of a finished bottom, meaning the bounce from the support level is a mechanism of trading, rather than investors initiating new positions.

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Paradigm Shift

The stark difference between the NASDAQ and Russel 2000 index in the last four-year cycle (February 2016 – March 2020) is displaying the economical paradigm shift in plain sight.  The last paradigm shift that is similar to today’s took place during the Great Depression.  Back then, 40% of the economy was Agriculture.  

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The NASDAQ Is Getting Ready to Move

We sent out a private note to our subscribers last Thursday stating that the NASDAQ index has experienced three distribution days so far.  Last Friday the NASDAQ also had a sizable selloff but with a light volume, therefore last Friday was not a distribution day.   And amazingly the low of last Friday stopped right above a critical swing low.

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 07102020

Last week the S&P 500 and Dow were trading sideways and slowly grinding higher while the NASDAQ was strongly trending higher and closed at a fresh all time high.  Last Monday we sent out an email alerting the cycle inversion and the impact of the presidential election to the stock market. 

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