Category Archives: Forecasts

Year End Rally Or No Rally

The stock market has suffered major technical damages across the board last week.  Historically midterm election years Octobers are downright stellar. These Octobers have been a time of turnaround, with 12 post World War II bear markets ending in October, including the most recent, 1987, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011.  Is the 2018 midterm election October an exception or will it follow the statistic to endow us a year end rally?

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DOW Cycle Location 09212018

The DOW and S&P 500 both closed at all time high last Friday, yet the NASDAQ is lagging behind.  At the end of August, NASDAQ was in overbought condition with 8.81% over 30-week moving average.  The current three weeks correction has been supported by the 10-week moving average.

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S&P 500 Cycle Location 09072018

The first week of September proves once again that September is not a good month for the stock market.  The market had a mild selloff that was led by the small caps and NASDAQ.  As soon as the S&P 500 broke out the old January 2018 high, it fell right back down below the old high.

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The DOW Index Cycle Location

While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both made an all time high, the DOW is behind.  The DOW index is more sensitive to the trade war due to the fact that the multi-nationals derive significant portion of their revenue from China. 

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Be Aware of Contagion Effect

Can the US stock market continue to go up while the emerging markets are experiencing an acute bear market?  Since the beginning of the bull market in 2009, it has experienced two major corrections, one was in 2011 and the other was in 2015.  The two corrections were both caused by the disturbances outside of the US. 

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