Category Archives: Forecasts

A-B-C Correction Pattern

The summer correction has finished an A-B-C correction pattern if the 09/27/23 low holds from this point on.  The 10-year treasury yield has made a new high at 4.688% last Thursday 09/28/23.  The not so bad inflation data released last Friday caused the 10-year treasury yield to gap down on Friday morning.  The tug of war between the inflation and treasury yield has caused extreme

You need to be logged in to view the rest of the content. Please . Not a Member? Join Us

Read more ...

Looking for a Seasonal Bottom in October

The market lost ground last Wednesday after the September Fed meeting.  The Fed had the same message of “higher and longer” like before.  And the Fed paused as expected.  But the market took the opportunity to selloff to fulfill the promise of September being a bad month for the stock market.  The S&P 500 and DOW both had the August low violated, with the NASDAQ closed near

Read more ...

Under Weak Seasonal Influence

The market was unfazed last week when the not so great, but no disaster CPI data was released.  If the market sentiment was bearish when the slightly hotter CPI data was released, the shorts would have taken the opportunity to push it down hard.  We didn’t find any evidence of hard selling, but no buying either.  The market is simply waiting out

Read more ...

The Bad Apple

The dominating headline news was about the Chinese government banning Apples phones for state employees last week.  That sent Apple stock down 6% for the week which also sent the general market down because Apples weighs heavily on indices and sentiment.  The market is concerned about the spillover impact from banning Apple phones.  What if it extends

Read more ...

Is the Market Bottomed Already?

Originally we expected the market to correct all the way into October, where it is a typical place for a seasonal low.  We had two major events last week.  First, the Nvidia Q2 earnings report was a blowout quarter, but the market didn’t jump as it was under the Fed’s shadow.  Secondly, the Fed Jackson Hole speech was the usual data dependent muddy rambling,

Read more ...