Category Archives: Forecasts

S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 11/01/2019

The S&P 500 cash index closed at 3066.91 at a record high last Friday.  Even though it is a hair below the breakout target at 3076.67, it could easily take down the target next week if the trade war news continues to be positive.  The Q3 earnings prove to be better or not as bad as feared.  It seems that all the stars are lined up to have a year-end rally. 

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Where is the Euphoria?

One of the world’s most successful mutual-fund managers, John Templeton once succinctly summed up the mass emotions in different stages of the stock market as: Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.  The market is near all time high, yet the sentiment is very negative as the skepticism is bountiful about the many issues that have held the stock market hostage for the last 20 months.

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This Is It!

The much anticipated trade deal is here.  It is only a partial deal, which the White House has said many times before that a partial deal was not acceptable.  What has changed?  Both sides have changed a lot for various self-serving reasons.  The stock market and the 10-year treasury yield were at a critical

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Calm Before the Storm

On Thursday October 3rd, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks fell below 10-day moving average reached 3.39%, which was an extreme oversold condition.  The market bounced immediately after the extreme condition was met briefly, but with weak volume on all indices.  The administration was leaking trade talk hope while the market was rallying on Friday morning.

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 09272019

Last Friday there were news about the administration considering delisting the Chinese stocks.  The market  sold off immediately, but it managed to climb back off the lows around 3pm.  The market has been really resilient against the headline risks in September.  Is it the calm before the storm or is it because the funds are being considerate of the quarter end closing?

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