Category Archives: Forecasts

The Bear Market is Here

Last week we questioned the validity of the rally that was induced by the trade war truce.  It turned that the rally was used as a selling opportunity.  It didn’t even have the strength to reach a symmetry swing at 2845 to create an appearance of a bullishness.  It promptly failed at 78.6% of the ab swing at 2800. 

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Can You Trust This Rally?

pricentime

The news of a cease fire of the trade war and the most recent FED statements seem to be providing the much needed good relief for the market.  The S&P 500 futures gapped up almost 40 points at open for the overnight session on Sunday night.  The important question is can we trust this rally?  Are the problems causing the market to selloff in October gone?

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Growth Vs. Value

Over the previous 12 business cycles, the best money managers during a cycle produced average annual compounded total returns of 25% to, in a few rare cases, 30%.  This small group consisted of either growth-stock managers or managers whose most successful investments were in growth stocks plus a few turnaround situations.

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Bear Market Doesn’t End Easily

pricentime

The semi-conductor sector is clearly in bearish territory.  The superstar chip stock NVDA dropped 18.8% on Friday due to bad earnings and forecast.  The chip sector ETF SMH topped in March 2018, but NVDA was the last man standing in chip sector until October 2018.

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The Dow Jones Cycle Location 10262018

The damage has been done.  It is confirmed that we are in the 4-year cycle high to low selloff phase.  A 4-year cycle high to low selloff can last anywhere 3-9 months or 2-3 years.  We will get more clarity after the quarterly closing on October 31, 2018.  

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