Category Archives: Forecasts

17-year Stock Market Cycle

On November 22, 1999 Warren Buffett made an uncanny prediction.  He famously warned investors that for the next 17-year period from late 1999 to late 2016 the realistic annualized return would be so so, around 6%.  Late 1999 was just a short few months before the final dotcom bubble bursting into flames.  In a July 1999 survey, investors

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S&P 500 Cash Index Seasonal Cycle 2017

pricentime

We are currently 13 weeks into the 3rd weekly cycle of the new four-year cycle that started in February 2016.  The current weekly cycle has been unable to produce a sell signal despite that it has been trading sideways in the top timing band.  The market is climbing a wall of worry.  This condition has caused us to examine the seasonal cycle within the four-year cycle.

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SP 500 Cash Index Cycle Location

The quick puff to 2300 price target cut the 3rd daily cycle short to 14 days.  The precise rejection from 2300 price level shows market’s unanimous agreement about the price target 2300.  2300 was a cluster price target from many different time cycles.  The market was range bound from 12/13/2016 to 01/26/2017.  It looked like it was heading

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SP 500 Cash Index Cycle Location

On /1/24/2017 it took out prior swing high at 2282.10 and made a new high.  This action extended the beta cycle phase on both the daily and weekly cycle level. We suspect it will eventually crawl to 2300ish level before any significant correction.  The buy the election and sell the inauguration trade was too obvious and too easy.  The market is doing

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SP 500 Cash Index Cycle Location

On the day of inauguration, the SP 500 index gapped higher at open. But it failed to exceed 15-minute open range.  The intraday high was made at open.  Open range high is statistically significant.  It means the market had good reaction to good news (inauguration), but there was no follow through.  Simply there weren’t continuous buyers

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