Category Archives: Forecasts

Cycle Studies On The Chinese Stock Market

The intensified trade war is apparently inflicting pains on the Chinese stock market.  At the moment there seems to be no catalysts to cause a ceasefire.  The strong dollar is also adding fuel to the fire.  In this blog, we will examine the long range, intermediate range cycles to provide a road map.

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The Market Topped on a Great GDP Number

Last week was full of fire and fury!  The tech darlings FB, INTC and TWTR had an out-sized drop that would certainly make investors wonder if this bull market is over.  FB had the biggest drop in its entire history.  Is the FAAMG group doomed? 

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The Lagging DOW Index

Well, finally the S&P 500 cash index broke out the 2800 level last week.  But it has been standing still around the 2800 level without attracting urgent sellers or buyers.  Normally the stalemate will be resolved on the downside by its own gravity–for lack of buyers to push up the market. 

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 07062018

The much talked trade war opened fire on Friday, July 6th as anticipated.  The market was calm as it could be.  All three major indices rallied with NASDAQ in leading position.  The Chinese stock market rallied as well.  Is the market discounting the impact of the future trade war escalation?

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 06292018

The major indices finished the first half of 2018 as a mixed bag.  S&P 500 and NASDAQ both finished with gains, while DOW finished in loss in the first half year.  This truly reflects the worries of a trade war because the DOW is mostly comprised of the multinationals, which are more sensitive to trade issues. 

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