Category Archives: Forecasts

$XLE More Down Side

The energy stocks topped on the week of December 16, 2016.  It has not been participating the rally at all.  We recommend our readers to stay away from the sector.  When the economy turns around that will lead to more activities in materials and industrial sectors, in turn it will drive up the demand for energy.  The rise of energy demand

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SP 500 Cash Index Cycle Location

The S&P 500 cash index continues to press higher despite the negative news coverage about the new white house administration.  The value line geometric index broke out a 17-year old triple top on February 13, 2017.  The value line geometric index doesn’t get the headlines like the Dow Jones Industrial average, but it is the true representation of the real US economy.

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Value Line Geometric Index 17-Year Triple Top Blown Away

Today the market blew the gasket that had held down the Value Line Geometric Index for 17 years.  The 17-year old triple top is essentially busted today.  What does this mean?  Are we returning to the crazy boom time like the 90’s from here?  Value line Geometric Index is reflective of the US domestic economy and may well be an

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17-year Stock Market Cycle

On November 22, 1999 Warren Buffett made an uncanny prediction.  He famously warned investors that for the next 17-year period from late 1999 to late 2016 the realistic annualized return would be so so, around 6%.  Late 1999 was just a short few months before the final dotcom bubble bursting into flames.  In a July 1999 survey, investors

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S&P 500 Cash Index Seasonal Cycle 2017


We are currently 13 weeks into the 3rd weekly cycle of the new four-year cycle that started in February 2016.  The current weekly cycle has been unable to produce a sell signal despite that it has been trading sideways in the top timing band.  The market is climbing a wall of worry.  This condition has caused us to examine the seasonal cycle within the four-year cycle.

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