Category Archives: Forecasts

Member Blog – Biotech Sector Intermediate Outlook

Biotech sector has been the shining star since November 2008.  It bottomed earlier than the general market’s crisis low in March 2009.  The rally finally was stopped in July 2015.  It has been range bound since February to August 2016.  The election rally didn’t breakout the August 2016 high.  Right now it is in the 10th week of the weekly cycle that

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What’s Beyond Internet and Mobile?

Technological advances have always been a force of nature in human history.  Humans can’t sit idle.  We are always consciously or subconsciously making stuff as our hands are extensions of our brain.  Innovations set us apart from the other four legged animals.

Amazon is a good example on how a matured Internet has changed our lifestyle. 

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S&P 500 Cycle Location

The cash S&P 500 index made a new high today.  The weekly and daily cycles are running on schedule without any anomalies.  We have an 18-day first daily cycle, and a 20-day second daily cycle.  The second daily cycle took 12 days to finish the bottoming process.  That 12 sideways down days included the last five trading days in 2016, which

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The Pending Correction

The S&P 500 index four-year cycle bottomed on 2/11/2016.  Since then, we have had three weekly primary cycles.  The cycle performance is as below:

Weekly Cycle Low to High High to Low
2/12/2016-7/1/2016 20-week cycle 17 weeks advanced 310 pts, 17% advance 3 weeks dropped 129 pts, 6% correction
7/8/2016-11/4/2016 18-week cycle 7 weeks advanced 202 pts, 10% advance 11 weeks dropped 110 pts, 5% correction
11/11/2016– 6 weeks advanced 194 pts, 9.3% advance

As the table illustrated, the so called “trump rally” is the weakest among the previous two weekly cycles.  The most bullish weekly cycle is the cycle coming out of the longer term four-year cycle.  As we are getting closer to the one-year mark of the four-year cycle, we are anticipating a correction that will correct the cumulative advance since February 2016.  That will lead to a seasonal low in the first quarter, most likely in February/March time frame.

Based on the percentage decrease of the subsequent cycle strength, we project this weekly cycle high to be 2280-2300.  The pending correction either falls on the first channel line or the second channel line.  The projected correction is either 7-week 5.5% decrease to 2100-2120 or 11-week 8% correction to 2100-2175.

The correction is imminent.  The most likely time frame is immediately after the inauguration.  Smart money has already left the market before the ceremony.  Keep your powder dry and reload during the seasonal low in February/March 2017.