Category Archives: Hot Stocks

The Market Left Us In Suspense Last Friday

The S&P 500 closed just 6 points below its 50-day moving average last Friday.  Closing one day below its 50-day moving average is not enough to say the market is set to decline from here.  It needs to close two consecutive trading days below its 50-day moving average to confirm the pending decline. 

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Correction Is Underway to At Least Mid October

In our last cycle analysis we pointed out that the market could hold up until the September FMOC meeting. But on Wednesday September 8th the market cracked.  We sent out a private email to our subscribers stating that the cycle oscillators have confirmed a daily cycle top.  The following day’s intraday trading further confirmed the daily cycle was on its way down.

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All Eyes Are On The September FOMC Meeting

The much anticipated Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium came and went.  The market took it as a non-event because Fed Chair Powell was dovish as usual.  Powell mentioned that taper is coming but interest rates will remain low for a long time.  The next Fed policy meeting is September 21st, which is about three weeks away.

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Six Weeks of Waiting — The Next FMOC Meeting In September

So far in August the major indices are showing incredible strength by making small incremental new highs every other day or so.  The general market is NOT advancing much, but definitely not coming down.  The market breadth continues to narrow down, meaning less and less stocks are participating with the general market.

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2021 Seasonal Pattern

There tends to be a seasonal pattern that emerges concerning investment cycles.  Traditionally, you get the summer highs followed by a crash into the seasonal Oct/Nov low.  As long as that panic low holds, then the market will run off to new highs once more.  However, when the Oct/Nov period produces a high, then that is far more serious and a decline thereafter typically follows into often the first quarter of the following year.

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