Category Archives: Market Talk

What if the Fed is Behind the Curve?

We had a surprise June CPI data last week.  The June CPI was down 0.1% vs. 0.1% increase expected.  This is the first that we have had deflation since April 2020.  Literally, the war on inflation is over.  Even though the PPI (Producer Price Index) data released next day was mixed, the Street mostly ignored it and continued to believe that

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What Happens When the DOW Tops First

The June employment data released last Friday was mixed but the market cheered the mixed data as goldilocks environment for the stock market.  All three indexes rallied and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continued to make new highs.  The NASDAQ has become a game of whack-a-mole.  Nvidia finished rally, no problem, just rotate to Apple, Amazon or Tesla.  The NASDAQ is doing

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Selling against Good Inflation Data

The Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price) index was unchanged in May, according to the government data release last Friday.  Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a flat reading.  This is a welcome news that inflation is cooling as expected.  If inflation continues to recede in the next

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A Short Term Top is in Place

Finally Nvidia had a trend reversal trade signal last Thursday, a day before the triple witching day on Friday.  Nvidia had a fabulous run since its earnings report in last May.  The final top came after the stock split event and XLK quarter end re-balancing.  The market is sending us a message that Nvidia buyers are exhausted at the

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Momentum Overtaking the Fed

The Fed pivoted to a hawkish tone by advising one rate cut in 2024 at last week’s meeting.  Back in March Fed meeting, the Fed projected three rate cuts in 2024.  This is definitely a hawkish pivot, but the market didn’t care. Apple jumped up 8% last week by releasing AI features at its 2024 Worldwide Developers Conference.  The Apple bulls cheered

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Cycle Forecast

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