Category Archives: Member Only

A Mixed Picture So Far

Last week the three indices made some progress on the downside, but it is a mixed picture with the NASDAQ leading the way down while the Dow and S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving average.  When we have a mixed picture like this, it is normally signifying buyers are present.  Perhaps the latecomers who missed the party are buying value stocks now.

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Business Not As Usual

The major indices rallied not stop in August, totally defied the potential seasonal pattern of August being the month of a summer high.  The S&P 500 took out February 2020 high and formed a clean breakout.  What’s transpired the last two months is a great sign for the intermediate term.  However, a pullback is truly a matter of “when” not “if”. 

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The Rally Is Still Full On

The stimulus package didn’t arrive as expected.  It didn’t matter.  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ went to make a highest weekly close anyway.  Inside the fabulous S&P 500 and NASDAQ all time highs, there are only 38% of the stocks went with the program to exceed the February 2020 high, 62% of the stocks are struggling and are significantly below the February 2020 high.

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NASDAQ Cash Index Cycle Location 08142020

Last Friday we sent an intraday alert to take profits in FSLY long trade.  The exit alert was based on the fact that the NASDAQ index has been weaker relative to the Dow and S&P 500 indices.   NASDAQ has a readable daily cycle top.  With the both chambers of Congress going home without a stimulus package signed, it could spark a painful pullback.

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Paradigm Shift

The stark difference between the NASDAQ and Russel 2000 index in the last four-year cycle (February 2016 – March 2020) is displaying the economical paradigm shift in plain sight.  The last paradigm shift that is similar to today’s took place during the Great Depression.  Back then, 40% of the economy was Agriculture.  

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