Category Archives: Stock Indices

Selling against Good Inflation Data

The Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price) index was unchanged in May, according to the government data release last Friday.  Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a flat reading.  This is a welcome news that inflation is cooling as expected.  If inflation continues to recede in the next

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Summer Rally is in Motion

The Nvidia led AI market rally just wouldn’t die!  The old economy DOW index finally joined the game after the good employment data was released last Friday.  Now the DOW and small cap Russell 2000 are waking up to the AI rally.  The synchronized rally has more gas left in the tank!  From seasonal cycle perspective, the current rally should last until late August

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Artificial Intelligence Saved the Market

Since the public release of ChatGPT on November 30, 2022, the world has been mesmerized by the generative power of ChatGPT.  There were talks about how AI can improve productivity and fight inflation.  AI is biggest technology breakthrough since the advent of Internet, and it will be bigger than Internet.  Six months later, Nvidia had a blowout earnings

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Teasing and then Grim Warning

The stock market rallied hard last week when both sides promised no default, yet without any details.  The S&P 500 briefly took out hard resistance at 4200 but it was promptly rejected due to the uncertainty connected with debt ceiling fight.  The primary force in this rally is from the AI hype.  The NASDAQ 100 took out its August 2022 high, which looks as if

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Asset Rotation Amid Recession Worries

The deposit outflow from the banking system into short term T-bills exposed the weak link in a seemly strong economy and resilient stock market.  The continued strength in the NASDAQ is the strongest evidence in asset rotation in the current stage of the stock market and economy.  The market is indeed worried about recession therefore funds have flown to the mega

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Cycle Forecast

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