Category Archives: Trade Recommendation

Asset Rotation Amid Recession Worries

The deposit outflow from the banking system into short term T-bills exposed the weak link in a seemly strong economy and resilient stock market.  The continued strength in the NASDAQ is the strongest evidence in asset rotation in the current stage of the stock market and economy.  The market is indeed worried about recession therefore funds have flown to the mega

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The Cost of Money and Why the Fed Fails Frequently

Even though the United States is a capitalist system with a free market where asset price discovery is conducted orderly, but the cost of money is decreed by the Fed.  The cost of money fluctuates depending on the Fed’s policy.  If the Fed is easing, the cost of money is low.  If the Fed is tightening, the cost of money is high. 

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Possible 5-10% Correction in Q1 2021

Last week the S&P 500 closed at a fresh new high while waiting for the stimulus package.  The main street is suffering from the pandemic, yet the stock market doesn’t care.  The stock market has made up its mind that it is a bull market no matter what!

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 05/22/2020

It has been eight weeks since the March 23 low.  The Dow and S&P 500 both are under its 200-day moving average.  Nasdaq has been above the 200-day moving average since April 22nd.  This divergence is reflecting the difference between the digital and real economy.  The digital economy stocks continue to perform because

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It Is Still A Bear Market Rally


Last week Nasdaq had an outside reversal weekly bar, meaning it traded lower than the previous week’s low and then closed higher than the previous week’s high.  When this happens, it is indicative of further momentum on the upside.  The Dow and S&P 500 also closed on the strong side on the weekly bar.  The short term momentum

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Cycle Forecast

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