Category Archives: Uncategorized

Summer Lull before the Storm

The 10-year treasury yield fell below 4.0% and the DOW decisively bounced off its 50-day moving average last week.  The good inflation data saved the day! The DOW successfully prevented a double top confirmation, therefore the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were able to press higher last week. The big banks earnings were not horrible and the consumer spending is

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10-year Treasury Yield Trend Reversal Trade Setup

Since the extreme hawkish September Fed meeting on last Wednesday, the markets have been in shock.  The 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have gone parabolic while the equities in every sector sold off hard. The DOW took out its June low while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ held their respective June low.  The 10-year treasury yield gap opened to a 12-year new high last Friday, but it failed to continue to

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The Fed Spoke Last Week

The much anticipated June Fed meeting was finally over.  The Fed spoke clearly about what we have known for sometime.  The re-opening is doing well thanks to the national vaccination efforts.  Inflation is running high, but the the Fed is not raising rates and not tapering.  The Fed could be tapering sometime down the road, but not now.

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A Rare Regime-Change Economic Policy Is Under Way

On last Thursday (10/08/20200) we sent out a private note stating that the small cap Russell 2000 index is breaking out in the midst of fiscal stimulus package negotiation.  This is the first time ever that the Russell 2000 index is outperforming the Dow and S&P 500 since the Russell 2000 index topped in August 2018.

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SP 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 02142020

What Coronavirus that virtually has shut down the entire second largest economy in the world?  It didn’t matter, the market has gone off the rails.  It seems that there is nothing right now to stop the rally.  The rest of the world is on life support, the US mega cap tech growth companies offer rare opportunities that provide growth and stability.

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Cycle Forecast

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