Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Fed Spoke Last Week

The much anticipated June Fed meeting was finally over.  The Fed spoke clearly about what we have known for sometime.  The re-opening is doing well thanks to the national vaccination efforts.  Inflation is running high, but the the Fed is not raising rates and not tapering.  The Fed could be tapering sometime down the road, but not now.

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A Rare Regime-Change Economic Policy Is Under Way

On last Thursday (10/08/20200) we sent out a private note stating that the small cap Russell 2000 index is breaking out in the midst of fiscal stimulus package negotiation.  This is the first time ever that the Russell 2000 index is outperforming the Dow and S&P 500 since the Russell 2000 index topped in August 2018.

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SP 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 02142020

What Coronavirus that virtually has shut down the entire second largest economy in the world?  It didn’t matter, the market has gone off the rails.  It seems that there is nothing right now to stop the rally.  The rest of the world is on life support, the US mega cap tech growth companies offer rare opportunities that provide growth and stability.

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The Market Correction is Underway

The market made a knee-jerk low on last Monday when the cronavirus hit the wire hard over the weekend.  It traded sideways for the next three days, then on Friday it took out the knee-jerk low and closed below it.  This is the confirmation of the weekly cycle correction is underway.

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Be Aware of a Blow Off Top

Last week all three indices had a mild selloff, which touched the previous breakout line but quickly closed above the breakout line.  Despite the scary new development about the pending trade war phase one deal, the price action has been resilient.  It’s impossible to predict what the December 15th White House tariff decision would be, but the price action predicts that the most likely outcome is no additional tariff to be put on December 15th, everyone will have a merry Christmas.

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