Tag Archives: seasonal cycle

S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 07052019

We blogged last week that the market was in a confirmed bullish trend despite the trade war and Fed rate cut noises.  Last week was a holiday week so the trading volume was low.  As of now, the market is still in a confirmed uptrend.  Since the last quarter of 2018, the market has been entirely news driven regardless of the underlining fundamentals, but the cycles have been functioning as they were supposed to.  So it’s best for us to listen to the tape and ignore the noises.

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Sell in May and Go Away

2019 is on target to be the fifth best year-to-date performance through April since World War II.  There has been a trend since World War II that a best performing first four months may presage the “sell in May and go away” phenomenon. This coming week is the busiest week for earnings report.  The earnings data

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Year End Rally Or No Rally

The stock market has suffered major technical damages across the board last week.  Historically midterm election years Octobers are downright stellar. These Octobers have been a time of turnaround, with 12 post World War II bear markets ending in October, including the most recent, 1987, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011.  Is the 2018 midterm election October an exception or will it follow the statistic to endow us a year end rally?

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Market Update 10/10/2018

The severity of the selloff today has changed the outlook of the market.  The important question right now is how long and how deep will the correction last.  Is it time to get out the market?  We are going to look at different indices an stocks to try to make sense of the madness.

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Be Aware of Contagion Effect

Can the US stock market continue to go up while the emerging markets are experiencing an acute bear market?  Since the beginning of the bull market in 2009, it has experienced two major corrections, one was in 2011 and the other was in 2015.  The two corrections were both caused by the disturbances outside of the US. 

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