Tag Archives: seasonal cycle

Year End Rally Or No Rally

The stock market has suffered major technical damages across the board last week.  Historically midterm election years Octobers are downright stellar. These Octobers have been a time of turnaround, with 12 post World War II bear markets ending in October, including the most recent, 1987, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011.  Is the 2018 midterm election October an exception or will it follow the statistic to endow us a year end rally?

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Market Update 10/10/2018

The severity of the selloff today has changed the outlook of the market.  The important question right now is how long and how deep will the correction last.  Is it time to get out the market?  We are going to look at different indices an stocks to try to make sense of the madness.

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Be Aware of Contagion Effect

Can the US stock market continue to go up while the emerging markets are experiencing an acute bear market?  Since the beginning of the bull market in 2009, it has experienced two major corrections, one was in 2011 and the other was in 2015.  The two corrections were both caused by the disturbances outside of the US. 

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 05252018

The market continues to be in sideways consolidation even though it clearly is in the process of a new weekly cycle that started on the week of 04/06/2018. The investors are not convinced that the current level is a bargain despite the great earnings report.

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location

Third time is the charm.  The market flashed outside reversal days three time, once on June 9th, once on July 27th, and finally on August 8th.  On those outside reversal days, the market made a fresh new high, then promptly sold off to close below the previous day’s low. 

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