Last week all three indices had a mild selloff, which touched the previous breakout line but quickly closed above the breakout line. Despite the scary new development about the pending trade war phase one deal, the price action has been resilient. It’s impossible to predict what the December 15th White House tariff decision would be, but the price action predicts that the most likely outcome is no additional tariff to be put on December 15th, everyone will have a merry Christmas.
On the Eve of Thanksgiving holiday, the Trump administration announced the signage of the much waited Pro-Hong Kong bills. Because Thanksgiving is such an important national holiday, many market participants were away from the market, the market reaction to the news has been muted. It has been observed
Last week we sent out a member private message about taking profits now. We have been bullish since the early October low and were expecting the rally to last until the end of year or mid January 2020. What changed? On November 19th, all three indices gaped to a new all time high then they produced an intraday sell signal within the first trading hour.
All three indices closed at a fresh all time high on the same day last Friday! A vague promise from the White House about the pending signage of the phase one trade agreement pumped the market to make a blue sky breakout! We have been here before in the last 20 months during the trade war
Last Thursday the 10-year treasury yield took out the September swing high of 1.903% and closed above it on a weekly basis. So from the yield perspective, this is a risk on environment, money will be forced to flow out of the safe haven into equities. The defensive sectors (XLU, XLP and XLRE) were promptly sold off to form a weekly cycle high.
