Tag Archives: weekly cycle bottom

Abnormal Behavior in the Stock Market

The recent unrelenting rally is anything but normal!  The fundamentals don’t support the scale of the rally.  The S&P 500 earnings only grew 3% but the market rallied 30%+.  The most overbought stock is Apple.  The street analysts have been searching for all the reasons (service revenue, 5G, better iPhone 11

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Opportunity or Something Else?

Last Friday the entire world woke up to the news that the US killed a top Iranian military commander in airstrike in Iraq.  The futures fell hard initially overnight, but recovered half of the loss by the time the market opened on Friday morning.  The market chopped around on Friday without significant selling pressure. 

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It’s About Time!

It has been 86 trading days since the December 2018 low.  The S&P 500 index rallied a total of 25.89% from low to high.  The high occurred on Wednesday May 1st after the Fed meeting conference.  After the initial 1.8% drop on Thursday, it rallied back on Friday based on good employment numbers. 

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A Minor Pull Back Before The Real Correction

Over the last weekend, it had real good news on trade war. The market gaped higher right into the 2815 resistance zone at open on Monday, but it was promptly sold off from open.  It had a footprint of synchronized selling (machine selling) during last Monday (03/04/2019) morning session, that S&P 500 lost 40 points in the morning session.

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S&P Cash Index Cycle Location 02/08/2019

Finally the index went points close to the 200-day moving average, but it had a very mild reaction, there is no forceful selling, period.  The mood of the streets is “under invested”, meaning the majority missed the bulk of the rally, either the longs got out too soon, or the bears shorted too soon.

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