Tag Archives: weekly cycle bottom

It’s About Time!

It has been 86 trading days since the December 2018 low.  The S&P 500 index rallied a total of 25.89% from low to high.  The high occurred on Wednesday May 1st after the Fed meeting conference.  After the initial 1.8% drop on Thursday, it rallied back on Friday based on good employment numbers. 

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A Minor Pull Back Before The Real Correction

Over the last weekend, it had real good news on trade war. The market gaped higher right into the 2815 resistance zone at open on Monday, but it was promptly sold off from open.  It had a footprint of synchronized selling (machine selling) during last Monday (03/04/2019) morning session, that S&P 500 lost 40 points in the morning session.

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S&P Cash Index Cycle Location 02/08/2019

Finally the index went points close to the 200-day moving average, but it had a very mild reaction, there is no forceful selling, period.  The mood of the streets is “under invested”, meaning the majority missed the bulk of the rally, either the longs got out too soon, or the bears shorted too soon.

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We Are Closer to a Short Term Bottom

The recent selloff has been absolutely brutal.  The market has gone into a sharp selloff that is very similar to the previous selloff in velocity and magnitude in October 2007.  From 10/12/2007 to 1/25/2008 during a 15-week period, the S&P 500 declined from 1576 to 1270, a 19.41% decline.

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New Investing Theme

Rising interest rates, strong dollar and trade war concerns are the fundamental reasons that made investors very hesitant to put money back into the market.  The hesitation showed up in the price action as sideways consolidation for the last four months.  

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