Tag Archives: weekly cycle

Santa Rally 2017

The pending passage of the Tax Reform Bill reducing the corporate tax to 21% and taking effect January 1st, 2018 rather than being delayed until 2019, will be one of the biggest positive catalysts for US equities in decades.  The seasonal Santa Rally just got a solid footing for the market to finish a fabulous 2017!

The S&P 500 cash index has finished the 16th bar in the current weekly cycle.  It is expected for the index to make a new high in the 17th week, the week right before Christmas.  The sentiment is extremely bullish around this time of the year.  The S&P 500 in on pace to target 2700.

In a different model, we project the DOW to reach 25,648 by the end of 2017.  We also have a projection for the DOW to reach 28,045 by the end of 2018.  However, we are not clear about the two-year cycle low in 2018.  It is due for a two-year cycle low in Q1 2018, but the market can completely skip the two-year cycle as it has done in the past.  So we want to see how the market opens in 2018 to see the likelihood of a sizable correction to produce a two-year cycle low in Q1 2018.  We are kind of in a holding pattern in terms of deploying additional capital at this time.

While in this holding pattern, we do have a few short term trades in options.  We would open near money calls for $VIAB, $INTC, $XLK, $AAPL and $MSFT.  All these options expire on December 29th, 2017.  In other words, we wish to use these options to capture the final Santa rally in 2017.

Good luck and cheers for a fabulous 2017!

 

 

Trading vs Investing

pricentime

Several of the questions most frequently asked of us have to do with trading.  How do you define a trader?  Should you trade? Why bother trading?  Is it better to invest or trade?  Those of you who are veterans of the market battle know if you are more inclined to trade or invest. 

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Portfolio Management

We at Pricentime.com run daily, weekly and monthly scanners to search for stocks that are ready to take off. The focus of the search is the study of price and volume information in the given stocks to predict pending movements. We also scan unusual options activities to find winners.

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location

We were watching the S&P 500 2478 target very closely.  It made a high @ 2477.62 on the 10th day on 07/20/2017 in the 4th daily cycle.  It was also in the 13th week in the weekly cycle, that is well within the top timing band in terms of the weekly cycle.  It’s too soon to tell if this 2477.62 high

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location

pricentime

S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both make a new high on July 14, 2017 while Nasdaq failed to do so.  Nevertheless,  the general market is extremely bullish despite the fact that the important banking sector was left behind.

It is 12 weeks into the current weekly cycle that started on April 13, 2017.  The important target at 2478 is about 20 points away.  We believe the market is going to spend the next few weeks trying to achieve the target, maybe a little over.  But this is close to the end of the rally that started in February 2016.  Tech and banking both failing to move with the general indices is a very important clue of the fatigue, that may lead to a meaningful correction.

We at PricenTime.com view this is a good opportunity to take profits.  We are not afraid to stay in cash when the market is so overbought.  We do hold open positions that are in special situations, which maybe less affected by the general market selloff.  Stay tuned.