Tag Archives: weekly cycle

This Is It!

The much anticipated trade deal is here.  It is only a partial deal, which the White House has said many times before that a partial deal was not acceptable.  What has changed?  Both sides have changed a lot for various self-serving reasons.  The stock market and the 10-year treasury yield were at a critical

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Calm Before the Storm

On Thursday October 3rd, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks fell below 10-day moving average reached 3.39%, which was an extreme oversold condition.  The market bounced immediately after the extreme condition was met briefly, but with weak volume on all indices.  The administration was leaking trade talk hope while the market was rallying on Friday morning.

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 09272019

Last Friday there were news about the administration considering delisting the Chinese stocks.  The market  sold off immediately, but it managed to climb back off the lows around 3pm.  The market has been really resilient against the headline risks in September.  Is it the calm before the storm or is it because the funds are being considerate of the quarter end closing?

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Technical Rotation or Breakout?

In the last few weeks, value stocks have out performed the momentum growth stocks.  The rallies in value stocks made an appearance of a healthier looking market.  With a broader participation, is the market ready for a breakout? Or is this a purely technical rotation?

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Follow the Price Action

Since August, we have been bearish expecting the market correction to run its course until sometime in October.  But the market had shown abnormal strength in the first nine trading days in September.  Because of the abnormal price action, we sent out private email notes on September 11th, which outlined the possibility that the correction bottom (early August low) might be in already.

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