Tag Archives: weekly cycle

Be Patient For That Fast and Furious Pullback

The market has rallied impressively for the last 9 weeks and it has caused major heart aches for the bears and the scared retail investors who have been told to stay on the sidelines.  From the market breath perspective, you have to admit that the likelihood of re-visiting the December low is getting slimmer as time goes on.

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S&P 500 Cash Index Cycle Location 02152019

The S&P 500 cash index closed above the highly watched 200-day moving average for the last four trading days.  The equities market is acting everything is fine, the FED is backing off from tight money policy, the trade war is going to be resolved and the growth engine will be back on again.

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S&P Cash Index Cycle Location 02/08/2019

Finally the index went points close to the 200-day moving average, but it had a very mild reaction, there is no forceful selling, period.  The mood of the streets is “under invested”, meaning the majority missed the bulk of the rally, either the longs got out too soon, or the bears shorted too soon.

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The DOW Index Cycle Location 02/01/2019

The DOW finished last Friday in a weak position in terms of the intraday structure.  It was not able to close above the previous day’s high, which is also last month’s high.  But it was able to close above the 200-day moving average and as well as the downtrend line that was established from the October selloff.

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The DOW Index Cycle Location 01/25/2019

The financials were the first group to report earnings, then it followed by the semiconductor stocks.  The market responded positively to both groups, except for some losers due to their company specific issues in each group.  The financials and semiconductors were the laggers since early 2018, now they have turned into market leaders.

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