The inflation data have not been cooler than expected and the employment data have not been weaker than expected either. The Fed’s “higher for longer” mantra has been the consistent message lately. The 10-year treasury yield has gone mad and briefly touched 5% last week. All the above mentioned fundamental developments pressured the stock market. […]
Despite a war was declared in Israel last weekend, the stock market rallied while the U.S. treasury yields fell down due to safe haven seeking behavior. This means that the stock market believed the war would be contained in the region and the risk of a wild spread war is small at the moment. The […]
In our last Blog we talked about the stock market A-B-C correction pattern. The S&P 500 made a new low on 10/3/2023 to invalidate the A-B-C pattern, but the subsequent rally last Friday confirmed the completion of the A-B-C correction pattern. The stock and bond markets whipsawed last Friday after the release of the blowout […]
The summer correction has finished an A-B-C correction pattern if the 09/27/23 low holds from this point on. The 10-year treasury yield has made a new high at 4.688% last Thursday 09/28/23. The not so bad inflation data released last Friday caused the 10-year treasury yield to gap down on Friday morning. The tug of […]
The market lost ground last Wednesday after the September Fed meeting. The Fed had the same message of “higher and longer” like before. And the Fed paused as expected. But the market took the opportunity to selloff to fulfill the promise of September being a bad month for the stock market. The S&P 500 and […]
The market was unfazed last week when the not so great, but no disaster CPI data was released. If the market sentiment was bearish when the slightly hotter CPI data was released, the shorts would have taken the opportunity to push it down hard. We didn’t find any evidence of hard selling, but no buying […]
