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10-year Treasury Yield Trend Reversal Trade Setup

25 September 2022

Since the extreme hawkish September Fed meeting on last Wednesday, the markets have been in shock.  The 2-year and 10-year treasury yields have gone parabolic while the equities in every sector sold off hard. The DOW took out its June low while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ held their respective June low.  The 10-year treasury […]

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There Is No Place to Hide

18 September 2022

The higher than expected CPI headline data released on last Tuesday September 13, 2022 squashed all hopes and dreams for the bulls.  Now the persistent high inflation headline data will support the Fed to hike rates aggressively in the near term.  The 10-year treasury yield is approaching a very important level at 3.50%.  If the […]

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The Shorts Had to Cover Last Week

11 September 2022

The S&P 500 cash index hit its 61.8% retracement of the June low to August high rally on September 1st.  Then after the Labor Day holiday the bears tried to crash the September 1st low again.  The bears were only able to make a nominal low on September 6th and promptly reversed from the 61.8% […]

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The Endless Boom-Bust Cycles

04 September 2022

The Fed, the nation’s central bank, influences the business cycle by targeting inflation and unemployment with targeted rates. It uses tools designed to change interest rates, lending, and borrowing by businesses, banks and consumers.  In September 2021 Fed meeting, the Fed labeled raging inflation as transitory and telegraphed the market that the Fed was not […]

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The Fed Deliberately Invoked “Pain”

28 August 2022

The much anticipated Fed Jackson Hole speech deliberately invoked “pain” that caused 3.94% selloff in the NASDAQ.  The Fed didn’t like the stock market rally prior to the speech, therefore the Jackson Hole speech was designed to take down the stock market forcefully.  The 8-minute short and succinct statements from the Fed Chair Powell did […]

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How Long Can the Market Fight the Fed?

21 August 2022

Ever since the June 17 bottom, the market has made up its own mind.  It didn’t matter what the hawkish Fed officials said about their resolves to fight inflation, the market plowed ahead as if everything is fine.  The S&P 500 met its maker at 200-day moving average on August 16, 2022.  The bulls were […]

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